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Research

CPI Inflation has crossed 3% in May 2019 after a gap of 7 months

As per the latest data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), Consumer Prices Index (CPI) Inflation witnessed sequential rise for the fourth month in May 2019 to 3.05% (provisional estimates, measured by y-o-y change) from 2.99% (revised from 2.92% reported earlier) in April 2019.

Expected Revival in GDP Growth with Political Stability and Monetary Stimulus

GDP growth slowed down to 5.8% in Q4 2018-19, thus dragging down the estimates of FY 2018-19 growth at 6.8%. However, the domestic economy expected to improve in 2019-20 on the back of monetary easing, benefiting from benign inflation coupled with relatively lower oil prices than expected. Political continuity ensured by the outcome of the general elections also helped to improved growth prospects in 2019-20...

RBI's revised directive provides much needed flexibility for lenders while ensuring credit discipline

The Reserve Bank of India today released revised norms for resolution of stressed assets in the wake of the judgment of the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India.

BWR expects a rate cut in August Policy due to the recent slump in growth numbers and benign inflation

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the key policy repo rate by 25 bps to 5.75%; which is a third consecutive cut in the policy rate and changed the stance to accommodative from neutral. The rate cut and stance both are in line with BWR expectations. All six members of the MPC, including the Governor of RBI, unanimously decided to reduce the policy repo rate and change the policy stance.

BWR expects Monetary Policy Committee to cut repo rate by 25 basis points

BWR expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut key policy reporate by 25 basis points in the ensuing policy review of June 6, 2019. The MPC has reduced repo rates - 25 basis points each - continuously in its earlier two MPC reviews.

Inflation and IIP report

CPI Inflation increased to 2.92% in April compared to 2.86% in March. The overall inflation rate is expected to be benign in the next 12-18 months and provides room for the rate cut, although the core inflation has been higher than 5% in recent months. There are also risks arising from the US sanctions on Iran impacting the oil prices. On industrial output, while the growth has decelerated, the capacity utilization is at the highest level. Therefore, increase in output growth will critically depend on new investments.

FX Swap to Help Manage Liquidity Efficiently and Mitigate Rise in Interest Rates; Real Impact to be known by 2022

Brickwork Ratings, Mumbai, 15 May 2019: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a new liquidity management tool in the form of dollar-rupee swap in March 2019 to meet the durable liquidity needs of the system. This is an addition to its many liquidity management tools like Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and Open Market Operations (OMOs).

CPI Inflation edges up to 2.86% in March 2019....

Inflation, measured by y-o-y change in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), rose to 2.86% in March 2019, the second consecutive rise in 2019 after touching a 19-month low of 1.97% in January 2019. An upturn in food inflation coupled with marginal increase in inflation in the fuel group led 29 bps increase in the CPI inflation in March. With this, the average inflation for 2018-19 stood at 3.4% as compared to 3.6% during 2017-18.

Brickwork Ratings expects further rate cuts in FY20 in RBI Monetary Policy; Slow growth rate and benign inflation will be the basis of the expectation

Brickwork Ratings, 04 April 2019, Mumbai: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the key policy repo rate by 25 bps to 6%; which is a second consecutive cut in policy rate. The rate cut and stance both are in line with BWR expectations.

BWR expects Monetary Policy Committee to cut rates by 25 bps

Brickwork Ratings, 04 April 2019, Bengaluru: Brickwork Ratings expects Reserve Bank of India (RBI) led Monetary Policy Committee may again reduce the key policy rate- repo rate by a quarter point (25bps) at first Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Statement of the financial year 2019-20 after one slice in February policy due to growth pressure and benign inflation state.

Funding Challenges to Continue for India’s Shadow Banks in H1FY20

Liquidity Crunch fueled by muted demand from capital market and low appetite from banks.
Brickwork Ratings, Mumbai, 18 March 2019: Brickwork Ratings sees prolonged liabilities mismatch for India’s shadow banks – Non Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs).

Economy on the Revival Path: Need for a Calibrated View

The third quarter estimate of GDP for the year and the second advance estimate of National Income for 2017-18 released on February 28 shows that the economy, after the two major disruptions is in the recovery mode. There has been a steady acceleration in the growth of GDP from 5.7 per cent in the first quarter to 6.5 per cent in the second and further to 7.2 per cent in the third quarter.

Popular budget amidst attempt to fuel growth and infrastructure

Mumbai, 01 February 2018: Contrary to the expected populist budget, this year budget provides impetus to growth and is a good balancing act of driving growth agenda and keeping some popular measures for the masses. A strong emphasis has been given for uplift of Rural Sector, Healthcare, Education & Infrastructure to accelerate economic growth. The budget is credit positive for business environment especially for the MSME sector, one of the largest job generators in the country.